Hawaii is accustomed to watching tropical systems from a distance. Its location in the central Pacific often means storms weaken, turn away, or pass far enough offshore to avoid the worst of their winds. The 2026 season has challenged that familiar pattern. Hurricane Nolo became the third hurricane to affect Hawaii in little more than a month, following Hurricanes Lala and Lowell, while an unusually strong El Niño helped create an environment favorable to repeated Pacific storms. The result has given scientists and emergency officials an unusually concentrated real-world case study of how rainfall, storm tracks, ocean conditions and geography combine to shape risk.
The significance of Hurricane Nolo is not simply that it became a powerful storm. Its approach showed how a hurricane can create serious consequences without making a direct landfall. Nolo stalled south of the Big Island, producing heavy rain, large waves and gusty winds before moving westward. On September 26, the National Hurricane Center reported the storm about 145 miles south of South Point with sustained winds of 105 mph. By September 27, it had strengthened to Category 4 intensity farther west of the Hawaiian Islands.
Hurricane Nolo and the Geography of Risk
One lesson from Hurricane Nolo is that the center of a storm is only one part of the danger. Hawaii’s steep volcanic terrain can dramatically amplify the consequences of intense rainfall. Water moving down mountain slopes can rapidly enter narrow channels, while saturated ground increases the possibility of landslides and debris flows.
That vulnerability was already visible during Hurricane Lala in August. The U.S. Geological Survey documented flooding and debris flows on the south side of Hawaiʻi Island and reported 32.1 inches of rainfall in a single day at the Laupāhoehoe station. The event produced destructive flooding and debris flows near Naʻālehu and Waiohinu and resulted in two known fatalities.
The experience matters when assessing Hurricane Nolo because the islands were not approaching the storm with completely dry ground and unlimited infrastructure capacity. Repeated heavy rainfall can leave drainage systems, roads, slopes and communities with less room to absorb another extreme event. That turns the spacing between storms into part of the risk calculation.
El Niño Changed the Pacific Setup
The 2026 hurricane season also demonstrates why scientists look beyond individual storms. NOAA’s Central Pacific outlook had already identified a strong El Niño as a major reason for expecting above-normal activity. The agency projected five to 13 combined named storms and tropical depressions in the central Pacific, compared with a 1991–2020 average of 4.4. NOAA also cautioned that a seasonal outlook cannot determine exactly where or when a storm will make landfall.
That distinction is important. El Niño does not mean Hawaii will automatically receive a hurricane. Instead, it changes the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions that influence where tropical cyclones develop and how they move. NOAA says strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with dramatically elevated central Pacific activity. The 2026 season has provided a striking example of that relationship, with three hurricanes affecting Hawaii in rapid succession.
The arrival of Hurricane Nolo therefore fits into a much larger atmospheric story. It is one storm within a season shaped by climate patterns operating across thousands of miles of ocean.
Warmer Oceans Add Another Layer
Scientists are also examining how long-term ocean warming may interact with natural climate patterns such as El Niño. It would be too early to attribute the 2026 Hawaiian storms individually to human-caused climate change. A single hurricane season cannot establish that relationship.
The broader scientific evidence, however, points toward some important changes. NOAA’s assessment of more than 90 scientific studies concluded that human-caused warming is likely increasing tropical-cyclone intensity and that tropical-cyclone rainfall rates are expected to rise as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. The same assessment says scientists are less certain about how global warming will affect the total number of tropical cyclones.
That distinction could become increasingly important for Hawaii. A future with no dramatic increase in the number of storms could still involve greater risk if the storms that do occur produce heavier rainfall or stronger winds. The question is therefore not simply whether Hawaii will experience more hurricanes, but how damaging individual events could become under different combinations of ocean warmth, atmospheric circulation and storm structure.
Slow Storms Can Be Especially Dangerous
Another feature highlighted by Hurricane Nolo was its slow movement near Hawaii. The storm remained south of the Big Island for an extended period, giving its rain bands more time to affect the region. Forecast rainfall totals changed as the storm’s track evolved, illustrating another challenge for emergency planners: small changes in storm motion can produce large differences in local rainfall.
Hawaii’s terrain makes this especially important. The National Weather Service notes that rainfall varies enormously across the islands because mountains force moist air upward, producing heavy precipitation on some slopes while other locations remain considerably drier.
Researchers are also studying rainfall patterns that are unrelated to hurricanes but can influence how vulnerable the islands are when a hurricane arrives. A 2026 University of Hawaiʻi study identified the Madden-Julian Oscillation as an important driver of periods of enhanced rainfall, particularly on windward slopes. These overlapping climate and weather patterns demonstrate why storm risk cannot be understood through hurricane strength alone.
A New Way to Think About Hawaii’s Storm Risk
Hurricane Nolo may ultimately be remembered not just for its intensity, but for what the 2026 season revealed about exposure. Hawaii’s storm risk depends on where a hurricane forms, how quickly it moves, how much moisture it carries, how warm the surrounding ocean is, what the larger climate pattern is doing and whether the ground and infrastructure have already been stressed by earlier events.
That makes Hurricane Nolo part of a broader scientific lesson. One storm cannot prove that Hawaii’s climate has permanently changed, and one active season cannot establish a long-term trend. What it can do is expose weaknesses, test forecasting systems and provide researchers with valuable observations.
As the 2026 season continues, Hurricane Nolo has given scientists another opportunity to study the complicated relationship between Pacific climate patterns and island vulnerability. Hurricane Nolo also reinforces a practical reality for Hawaii: preparation cannot focus only on the possibility of a direct hurricane strike. Heavy rainfall, saturated slopes, repeated storms and the cumulative pressure on infrastructure can determine the real cost of an event. Hurricane Nolo may eventually move far from the islands, but the data gathered from its passage, alongside the lessons from Lala and Lowell, will remain useful long after the winds have disappeared.
